Global Climate Change - Part III

Date Added: September 01, 2009 07:29:17 AM

Author: Glenn

Category: Business & Economy: Buildings and Factories

In the first of these articles on climate change, some of the current and predicted temperature trends were discussed. In this, the third in the series, a look at the trends on the ground and their effects will be discussed. What will climate change mean for our planet? For us? In the second article we ound that historic cultures both benefited and became imperiled as a result of the climate changes they experienced. It will likely be a similar mixed result for our time; some may find their way of life challenged while others may actually find that their opportunities improve in the changing times. The predictable outcomes of climate change can be summarized in a short list of effects, shown below. These effects are not necessarily good or bad but they do represent challenges that we must be prepared to face. For all the effort that has gone into trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, very little has gone into actually preparing the world for what will likely still happen even if those emissions reductions do occur. Probable Effects of Climate Change • Changes in Weather and Rainfall Patterns • Changing Habitats and Growing Areas • Rising Sea Levels • Population Migration One of the surest outcomes of climate change is a shift in regional weather and rainfall patterns around the globe. In fact, evidence exists that this is happening already; satellite imagery of the Sahara Desert shows that, since 1990, the Sahara has been shrinking. Greater rainfall near the southern end of the desert has meant increased growth in vegetation and experts predict that by the end of the 21st century, the Sahara will be reduced to its 1901 extent, when a land survey had been conducted. This fact alone should not be alarming or create hysteria; the Sahara has waxed and waned many times throughout recorded human history. That said, it should be taken as an indicator that change is upon us. Climate models suggest that water availability and average river flow are projected to increase at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. It is likely that larger and more numerous areas will be affected by droughts, while more frequent heavy precipitation events will increase flood risk. The amount of water stored in glaciers and snow cover is expected to decline, complicating water availability in regions where one-sixth of the world population currently lives. As weather patterns change, the growing ranges of some crops may shift. Governments, corporations and individual land owners must be aware of these shifts and their potential impact. Certainly, modern farmers have more resources and knowledge at their disposal than their counterparts in medieval Europe; as such, there is no reason to expect famine. Rather there must be a general understanding and acceptance that there may come a year when planting the same crop in the same field no longer makes sense. There are many crops which do far better in certain climates; even shifting from one variety to another within the same family of crop can mean a bountiful harvest in a year that is wetter or dryer than the historical norm. Educating farmers and land managers about the relationships between crop variety, crop yield and local climate and making more seed types available could minimize the impact of climate change on the global food chain. Furthermore, governments, universities and nonprofit organizations must continue to offer up to date forecasts of anticipated climate shifts; in this way the farmers and planners can leverage their knowledge to achieve the best outcome from year to year and decade to decade. As the world warms, ice at the poles will melt; in turn, that melt water will slightly increase the depth of the world’s oceans. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the global average sea level will likely rise by 18 to 59 cm (7 to 23 inches) by the end of the 21st century. The effects of this rise will be most pronounced in low-lying areas near the coast; coastal erosion and infiltration of sea water into fresh water aquifers are likely risks. Additionally, it is plausible that fish and shellfish ranges may shift with the rising waters. Complicating this is that some of the land that could be underwater in a century is currently in use; to the extent that the current uses could pollute the water when submerged, governments and corporations must focus on remediation of these sites in the coming decades. In response to the changes outlined above, human populations will naturally shift; people will seek to migrate to the areas where crops and water are more plentiful. While predictable, this human migration will tax the resources of the regions to which the people migrate. Global Climate Change - Part III

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